Next Tuesday marks the 4th anniversary of the joining of three nations as "the axis of evil", under the auspices of Rt Rev George W. Bush. Ominously, on the fourth anniversary it is customary in the modern tradition to give the happy triple a gift of appliances .
This year, the Rt Rev is intent on making sure the gift never reaches the second of these nations, not by declaring open hostilities with Iran, but by reminding the world of his dioces' obligation to protect Israel. So begins the merry-go-round of half-baked excuses which we saw with Iraq, in an attempt to see which one will stick. "WMD's not enough this time? Fine we'll go with with Israel. Well Dick, they didn't seem to go for that one, let's try an embargo on beards."
For Iraq, the transition from rhetoric to action took one year, one month and two weeks. Given the need to withdraw forces across the border (scheduled to start the end of this year), assemble another coalition of willing and the need to avoid a winter campaign, I'm taking bets that the invasion of Iran will take place in April 2008.
Any punters?
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3 comments:
don't you mean avoid a summer campaign? Which makes April cutting it a bit fine.
You are indeed right Chris. As am I. Iran has a variable climate, with heavy snow and freezing temperatures in the northwest during winter. The south meanwhile enjoys average daily temperatures of over 38C in the summer.
A little poser for the military planners. Given that Tehran is in the NW, though it seems that winter is the one to avoid, even if it is a bit earlier than I suggested.
There is the additional problem of campaign cock-ups emerging too soon before the election and therefore ruining the Republican candidate's chances, which would make it tempting to have it a bit later in the year.
Since writing the above post I am even more convinced the invasion will proceed. It will be too much for the Americans (and their willing lackeys, the Brits) to allow some kind of Shia Anschluβ of hostile attitude to the West.
FE
I would punt against you. I think Iraq will still be a handful in 2008, unless there has been a withdrawal so complete and disastrous that Iran would be a political impossibility.
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